Global Divisions Are Fueling Gold's Rally. Forecast as of 06.01.2026

Global Divisions Are Fueling Gold's Rally. Forecast as of 06.01.2026 Rising tensions between the West and the East following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine have accelerated de-dollarization and prompted central banks to diversify their reserves. Recent developments in Venezuela have accelerated these processes. Let's discuss this topic and make a trading plan for the XAU/USD. The article covers the following subjects: Major Takeaways Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Gold Weekly Trading Plan for XAUUSD Major Takeaways Despite sell-offs by passive funds, the XAUUSD pair remained resilient. Geopolitical tensions increased volatility and bolstered the gold price. US policy is exacerbating the split between the West and the East. Consider long trades when the price pulls back to $4,400 and $4,345. Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Gold If gold is rising despite headwinds, what happens when conditions turn into tailwinds? The CME's decision to raise margin requirements to curb speculative volatility in precious metals, combined with selling by index-tracking funds, initially led to a pullback in the XAU/USD pair. However, geopolitical tensions quickly drew buyers back into the market, much sooner than expected. According to TD Securities, gold was expected to come under pressure in early 2026. However, after posting its second-best performance on record at the end of 2025, gold's weighting in the Bloomberg Commodity Index increased. As a result, passive investment funds needed to sell around $6 billion worth of gold to rebalance to target levels. In the thin liquidity conditions typical of the start of the year, this could have triggered a sharp decline in XAUUSD. However, geopolitical developments in Venezuela and the involvement of the US shifted market sentiment and supported the gold price. Gold and Silver Weighting in the Bloomberg Commodity Index LiteFinance: Gold and Silver Weighting in the Bloomberg Commodity Index Source: Bloomberg. Deglobalization accelerated in 2022, when the conflict in Ukraine started, but later appeared to slow down amid signs of improved relations between Washington and Moscow. That trend has now been disrupted by developments involving Venezuela, an authoritarian state outside the Western sphere of influence. The detention of its president triggered strong reactions from its key allies, China and Russia. If diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in Eastern Europe fail, the geopolitical rift is likely to deepen further. In 2022, this geopolitical split triggered a surge in central bank gold purchases as part of broader de-dollarization and reserve diversification efforts. Goldman Sachs expects central bank gold purchases to average around 70 tons per month in 2026, close to the 66-ton average seen over the past year and well above the roughly 17 tons recorded before the conflict in Ukraine. Based on this outlook, the bank forecasts gold prices rising to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. Before the recent developments in Venezuela, these projections appeared overstated. Now, they look far more plausible. Gold Price Performance Amid Key Market Events LiteFinance: Gold Price Performance Amid Key Market Events Source: Bloomberg. Each major round-number milestone in gold prices has been tied to significant events. Gold reached $2,000 per ounce during the pandemic, $3,000 amid US tariff tensions, and $4,000 as the US labor market cooled and the Federal Reserve shifted toward monetary easing. What could drive gold to $5,000 per ounce? There is no shortage of potential catalysts ahead: another US government shutdown, a Supreme Court ruling overturning the administration's tariffs, the failure to end the war in Ukraine, a renewed US–China trade conflict, or even more extreme geopolitical shocks, from escalating tensions in Latin America to disputes involving strategically important territories such as Greenland. Weekly Trading Plan for XAUUSD Gold continues to trade in an uptrend. Thus, consider long trades when the price retreats to the support at $4,400 and $4,345. This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered. XAUUSD current rate in the Forex market: XAUUSD = $4465.76 Sell 4465.54 Buy 4465.76 Sentiment 51% 1-day change 0.07 (3.28%) Open the chart Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode Periods M1 M5 M15 M30 H1 H4 D1 W1 Zoom1D1W1M3M6M1YALL14. Jul11. Aug8. Sep6. Oct3. Nov1. Dec29. DecJul '24Jan '25Jul '25J…30003250350037504000425045004750 Global Divisions Are Fueling Gold's Rally. Forecast as of 06.01.2026 The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU. According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.